The 2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, to elect the 41st governor of Minnesota, as incumbent Democratic (DFL) Governor Mark Dayton chose not to run for re-election for a third term. The Democratic nominee was U.S. Representative Tim Walz from Minnesota's 1st congressional district, while the Republican Party nominated Hennepin County commissioner Jeff Johnson for a second consecutive time. The Independence Party of Minnesota did not field a candidate for the first time since 1994. Going into the election polls showed Walz ahead; the race was characterized as lean or likely DFL.

Walz went on to defeat Johnson by the largest margin for a DFL candidate since 1986, receiving more votes than any other gubernatorial candidate in Minnesota history. This was the first Minnesota gubernatorial election since 1958 in which any party won more than two consecutive elections, as well as the first time since 1998 where the party of the incumbent president lost.

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Organizations

Labor unions

State elected officials

Local officials

National organizations

State officials

  • Tina Liebling, state representative, former 2018 gubernatorial candidate

Individuals

Federal politicians

  • Rick Nolan, U.S. representative and candidate for lieutenant governor on the same ticket

State elected officials

Newspapers

Unions

Federal politicians

Mayors

State elected officials

Individuals

Tribal nations

Newspapers

Labor unions

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorErin MurphyLori SwansonTim WalzOtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeAugust 8–11, 2018217± 6.9%19%29%28%–24%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018439± 5.6%11%28%24%1%37%
GQR Research (D-Minnesota Victory PAC)June 25–27, 2018602–17%37%29%1%16%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorTom BakkChris ColemanAmy KlobucharErin MurphyRebecca OttoR. T. RybakTina SmithLori SwansonTim WalzUndecided
SurveyUSANovember 17–19, 2016––1%3%25%0%1%6%1%3%5%54%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorChris ColemanTina LieblingErin MurphyRebecca OttoLori SwansonPaul ThissenTim WalzUndecided
Mason-DixonJanuary 8–10, 2018298–12%2%6%9%16%4%21%30%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorErin MurphyRebecca OttoTim WalzOtherUndecided
Expedition Strategies (D-Walz)April 23–26, 2018600± 4.0%3%19%27%2%49%

Straw poll

Straw poll ballot at the Minnesota DFL February 2018 precinct caucuses

On February 6, 2018, the DFL conducted a statewide straw poll among registered Democrats in Minnesota. Caucus-goers were scheduled to elect delegates to their party's Senate district and county conventions, which in turn would elect state convention delegates who would endorse candidates for governor, two U.S. Senate seats, attorney general, state auditor and secretary of state. Congressional district delegates would endorse U.S. House candidates. Since the straw poll, the three lowest performing candidates withdrew from the race (Paul Thissen, Chris Coleman, and Tina Liebling).

Congressional unitTotal attendanceChris ColemanTina LieblingErin MurphyRebecca OttoPaul ThissenTim WalzOtherUncommitted
12,57771355107232561,5584163
23,5013842024116561201,1564523
34,2916702023868271861,3628530
46,0728542971,1111,2271391,38411897
59,5191,0194571,4001,4625372,363301,137
62,375326115294587595904375
72,1211241062744051727614273
83,8734412774741,0822637598527
Statewide34,3293,8892,0114,4576,4781,5329,933734,425
Percent-11.86%6.13%13.59%19.75%4.67%30.29%0.22%13.49%

Results

Results by county Walz 30–40%40–50%50–60%60–70%70–80% Murphy 40–50% Swanson 30–40%40–50%50–60%
Results by congressional district Walz 40–50%70–80% Murphy 40–50% Swanson 40–50%
Results by precinct Walz 30–40%40–50%50–60%60–70%70–80%80–90%>90% Murphy 20–30%30–40%40–50%50–60%60–70%70–80%80–90%>90% Swanson 20–30%30–40%40–50%50–60%60–70%70–80%80–90%>90% Holden 50–60%60–70%>90% Savior >90% Tied 20-30%30-40%40-50%50%No votes
Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL)Tim Walz242,83241.60%
Democratic (DFL)Erin Murphy186,96932.03%
Democratic (DFL)Lori Swanson143,51724.59%
Democratic (DFL)Tim Holden6,3981.10%
Democratic (DFL)Olé Savior4,0190.69%
Total votes583,735100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

  • Jeff Johnson, Hennepin County Commissioner, former state representative, and nominee for governor in 2014 Running mate: Donna Bergstrom, retired Marine Corps intelligence officer

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

State officials

Organizations

Newspapers and publications

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorJeff JohnsonMatt KruseTim PawlentyOtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeAugust 8–11, 2018156± 8.0%34%–43%–23%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018340± 6.4%32%–51%1%16%
BK Strategies (R)June 24–25, 2018439± 4.7%20%3%54%–23%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorKurt DaudtKeith DowneyTom EmmerMike McFaddenErik PaulsenTim PawlentyRich StanekUndecided
SurveyUSANovember 17–19, 2016––2%1%4%2%8%19%1%64%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorKurt DaudtMatt DeanKeith DowneyJeff JohnsonJulie RosenMary G. StephensUndecided
Mason-DixonJanuary 8–10, 2018218–12%2%1%24%4%1%54%

Results

Results by county Johnson 40–50%50–60%60–70%70–80% Pawlenty 40–50%50–60%60–70%
Results by congressional district Johnson 40–50%50–60% Pawlenty 40–50%
Republican Party of Minnesota primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJeff Johnson168,84152.61%
RepublicanTim Pawlenty140,74343.86%
RepublicanMathew Kruse11,3303.53%
Total votes320,914100.00%

Third parties and independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportLikely DOctober 26, 2018
The Washington PostLean DNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEightLikely DNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political ReportLikely DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal BallLean DNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPoliticsLean DNovember 4, 2018
Daily KosLikely DNovember 5, 2018
Fox NewsLean DNovember 5, 2018
PoliticoLikely DNovember 5, 2018
GoverningLean DNovember 5, 2018

Notes

Debates

The debate season began only three days after the primaries, with Johnson and Walz participating in two debates on Friday, August 17. A third debate was held on Friday, August 31.

Host network/sponsorsDateLink(s)Participants
Tim Walz (DFL)Jeff Johnson (R)
MPR NewsAugust 31, 2018InvitedInvited
KSTP-TVAugust 17, 2018InvitedInvited
Twin Cities PBS (Almanac)August 17, 2018InvitedInvited

Endorsements

Executive branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

  • Tom Emmer, U.S. representative and 2010 nominee for governor

Statewide and local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Federal officials

Newspapers

Mayors

  • Rita Albrecht, mayor of Bemidji
  • Robert Beussman, mayor of New Ulm
  • Bob Byrnes, mayor of Marshall
  • Rick Cannata, mayor of Hibbing
  • Melvin Carter, mayor of St. Paul
  • Molly Cummings, mayor of Hopkins
  • Jacob Frey, mayor of Minneapolis
  • Mary Gaasch, mayor of Lauderdale
  • Eric Garcetti, mayor of Los Angeles
  • Emily Larson, mayor of Duluth
  • Kirsten Hagen-Kennedy, mayor of North Branch
  • Mike Kuhle, mayor of Worthington
  • Mike Maguire, mayor of Eagan
  • Rick Miller, mayor of Waite Park
  • Harold Peterson, mayor of Blooming Prairie
  • Sarah Schroeder, mayor of Spring Grove
  • Nancy Tyra-Lukens, mayor of Eden Prairie
  • Ardell Brede, mayor of Rochester
  • Ben Schierer, mayor of Fergus Falls
  • Jim Hovland, mayor of Edina
  • Shep Harris, mayor of Golden Valley
  • Gary Skalko, mayor of Mountain Iron
  • Roy Srp, mayor of Waseca
  • Myron Bailey, mayor of Cottage Grove
  • Pat Baustian, mayor of Luverne
  • Bob Broeder, mayor of Le Seur
  • Ted Kozlowski, mayor of Stillwater
  • Jack L'Heureux, mayor of Mora
  • Charles Novak, mayor of Ely
  • Mark Peterson, mayor of Winona
  • Dennis Phelps, mayor of Westbrook
  • Mike Poellinger, mayor of La Crescent
  • R. T. Rybak, former mayor of Minneapolis
  • Gary Skalko, mayor of Mountain Iron
  • Nora Slawik, mayor of Maplewood
  • Dave Smiglewski, mayor of Granite Falls
  • Tom Stiehm, mayor of Austin
  • El Tinklenberg, former mayor of Blaine
  • John Tuorilla, mayor of Columet

State and local officials

Local officials

  • Betsy Tate Anderson, former Hopkins School Board
  • David Boone, Robbinsdale School Board
  • Jen Bouchard, Hopkins School Board
  • Crystal Brakke, Richfield School Board
  • Katy Campbell, Hopkins Council
  • Anne Casey, St. Louis Park School Board
  • Joanie Clausen, Golden Valley Council
  • Mari Daily, Moorhead Council
  • Jim Grabowska, St. Clair School Board
  • Dan Hartman, former Duluth Council
  • Michael Herring, Robbinsdale School Board
  • Linda Higgins, Hennepin County commissioner
  • Noah Hobbs, Duluth City Council
  • Valerie Holthus, Andover City Council
  • Andrew Johnson, Minneapolis City Council
  • Chris LaTondresse, Hopkins School Board
  • Pam Lindberg, Robbinsdale School Board
  • Nevada Littlewolf, Virginia City Council
  • Nancy Livingston, North St. Paul School Board
  • Randy Maluchnik, Carver County commissioner
  • Ken Morrison, St. Louis Park School Board
  • Reed Olson, Beltrami County commissioner
  • Linea Palmisano, Minneapolis City Council
  • Todd Rengo, Esko School Board
  • Gillian Rosenquist, Golden Valley Council
  • Kevin Staunton, Edina City Council
  • Vance Stuehrenberg, Blue Earth County commissioner
  • Christian Torkelson, Little Canada Council
  • Mary Tomback, St. Louis Park School Board
  • Renee Van Nett, Duluth City Council
  • Karen Waters, St. Louis Park School Board
  • Gordy Wagner, Pope County commissioner
  • Abdi Warsame, Minneapolis City Council

Individuals

Tribal nations

Unions

National organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorTim Walz (DFL)Jeff Johnson (R)Josh Welter (L)OtherUndecided
Change ResearchNovember 2–4, 2018953–53%41%2%2%–
Research Co.November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%48%42%–1%9%
SurveyUSAOctober 29–31, 2018600± 5.3%49%41%–2%9%
St. Cloud State UniversityOctober 15–30, 2018404–50%34%–––
Mason-DixonOctober 15–17, 2018800± 3.5%45%39%3%2%12%
Change ResearchOctober 12–13, 20181,413–47%44%3%4%2%
Marist CollegeSeptember 30 – October 4, 2018637 LV± 4.9%51%36%6%<1%6%
55%38%–<1%7%
860 RV± 4.2%49%37%7%<1%7%
53%39%–1%8%
Mason-DixonSeptember 10–12, 2018800± 3.5%45%36%1%2%16%
SurveyUSASeptember 6–8, 2018574± 4.9%47%40%–3%10%
Suffolk UniversityAugust 17–20, 2018500± 4.4%46%41%1%1%12%
Emerson CollegeAugust 8–11, 2018500± 4.6%40%33%––27%

with Erin Murphy and Tim Pawlenty

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorErin Murphy (D)Tim Pawlenty (R)OtherUndecided
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018876± 4.0%48%40%2%9%

with Lori Swanson and Tim Pawlenty

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorLori Swanson (D)Tim Pawlenty (R)OtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeAugust 8–11, 2018500± 4.6%44%36%–21%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018876± 4.0%51%40%2%7%
BK StrategiesJune 24–25, 20181,574± 2.5%46%41%–13%

with Tim Walz and Tim Pawlenty

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorTim Walz (D)Tim Pawlenty (R)OtherUndecided
Emerson CollegeAugust 8–11, 2018500± 4.6%44%33%–23%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018876± 4.0%51%40%1%8%
BK StrategiesJune 24–25, 20181,574± 2.5%48%41%–11%

with Lori Swanson and Jeff Johnson

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorLori Swanson (D)Jeff Johnson (R)Undecided
Emerson CollegeAugust 8–11, 2018500± 4.6%37%32%31%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorGeneric DemocratGeneric RepublicanUndecided
BK StrategiesJune 24–25, 20181,574± 2.5%48%42%10%
Public Policy Polling (D-A Better Minnesota)June 15–16, 2018717–46%39%16%

Results

2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic (DFL)Tim Walz1,393,09653.84%+3.77%
RepublicanJeff Johnson1,097,70542.43%−2.08%
Grassroots—LCChris Wright68,6672.65%+1.07%
LibertarianJosh Welter26,7351.03%+0.11%
Write-in1,0840.04%0.00%
Total votes2,587,287100.00%N/A
Democratic (DFL) hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Walz won five of eight congressional districts, with the remaining three going to Johnson. Each candidate won a district that elected a representative of the other party.

DistrictWalzJohnsonRepresentative
1st50%47%Jim Hagedorn
2nd51%45%Angie Craig
3rd54%42%Dean Phillips
4th66%31%Betty McCollum
5th78%18%Ilhan Omar
6th41%55%Tom Emmer
7th40%57%Collin Peterson
8th47%49%Pete Stauber

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroupWalzJohnsonNo answer% of voters
Gender
Men4849346
Women5937454
Age
18–24 years old712546
25–29 years old633435
30–39 years old6038212
40–49 years old5146313
50–64 years old5445129
65 and older5246235
Race
White5346189
Black841425
LatinoN/AN/AN/A3
AsianN/AN/AN/A2
OtherN/AN/AN/A2
Race by gender
White men4653141
White women5939248
Black menN/AN/AN/A3
Black womenN/AN/AN/A2
Latino menN/AN/AN/A1
Latino womenN/AN/AN/A1
OthersN/AN/AN/A3
Education
High school or less5245317
Some college education4849324
Associate degree4849317
Bachelor's degree5640426
Advanced degree7028216
Education and race
White college graduates6135438
White no college degree4651351
Non-white college graduates702644
Non-white no college degree742337
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees6829321
White women without college degrees5145428
White men with college degrees5443317
White men without college degrees4058223
Non-whites7324311
Income
Under $30,0006334314
$30,000–49,9995443321
$50,000–99,9994851136
$100,000–199,9995542323
Over $200,000N/AN/AN/A7
Party ID
Democrats955N/A39
Republicans1090N/A32
Independents5142728
Party by gender
Democratic men945114
Democratic women954125
Republican men892N/A16
Republican women1288N/A17
Independent men4748516
Independent women5834813
Ideology
Liberals942427
Moderates6532339
Conservatives1087333
Marital status
Married4749468
Unmarried6333432
Gender by marital status
Married men4354331
Married women5145436
Unmarried men5243515
Unmarried women7224418
First-time midterm election voter
Yes5244412
No5542388
Most important issue facing the country
Health care7424250
Immigration2079122
Economy3067318
Gun policyN/AN/AN/A8
Area type
Urban6730340
Suburban5046432
Rural4156328
Source: CNN

See also

Notes

External links

Official campaign websites