Potentially hazardous object

A potentially hazardous object (PHO) is a near-Earth object – either an asteroid or a comet – with an orbit that can make close approaches to the Earth and which is large enough to cause significant regional damage in the event of impact. They are conventionally defined as having a minimum orbit intersection distance with Earth of less than 0.05astronomical units(19.5lunar distances) and an absolute magnitude of 22 or brighter, the latter of which roughly corresponds to a size larger than 140 meters. More than 99% of the known potentially hazardous objects pose no impact threat over the next 100 years. As of February2025[update], just 21 of the known potentially hazardous objects listed on the Sentry Risk Table could not be excluded as potential threats over the next hundred years. Over hundreds if not thousands of years though, the orbits of some "potentially hazardous" asteroids can evolve to live up to their namesake.

Most of these objects are potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), and a few are comets. As of November2022[update] there are 2,304 known PHAs (about 8% of the total near-Earth population), of which 153 are estimated to be larger than one kilometer in diameter . Most of the discovered PHAs are Apollo asteroids (1,965) and fewer belong to the group of Aten asteroids (185).

A potentially hazardous object can be known not to be a threat to Earth for the next 100 years or more, if its orbit is reasonably well determined. Potentially hazardous asteroids with some threat of impacting Earth in the next 100 years are listed on the Sentry Risk Table. As of September2022[update], only 17 potentially hazardous asteroids are listed on the Sentry Risk Table. Most potentially hazardous asteroids are ruled out as hazardous to at least several hundreds of years when their competing best orbit models are sufficiently constrained, but recent discoveries whose orbital constraints are little-known have divergent or incomplete mechanical models until observation yields further data. After several astronomical surveys, the number of known PHAs has increased tenfold since the end of the 1990s . The Minor Planet Center's website List of the Potentially Hazardous Asteroids also publishes detailed information for these objects.

In May 2021, NASA astronomers reported that 5 to 10 years of preparation may be needed to avoid a potential impactor, as most recently based on a simulated exercise conducted by the 2021 Planetary Defense Conference.

Overview

An object is considered a PHO if its minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) with respect to Earth is less than 0.05AU(7,500,000km; 4,600,000mi)‍—approximately 19.5lunar distances‍—and its absolute magnitude is brighter than 22, approximately corresponding to a diameter above 140 meters (460ft). This is big enough to cause regional devastation to human settlements unprecedented in human history in the case of a land impact, or a major tsunami in the case of an ocean impact. Such impact events occur on average around once per 10,000years. NEOWISE data estimates that there are 4,700±1,500 potentially hazardous asteroids with a diameter greater than 100 meters.

Levels of hazard

The two main scales used to categorize the impact hazards of asteroids are the Palermo scale and the Torino scale.

Potentially hazardous comet

A potentially hazardous comet (PHC) is a comet which meets the definition for a PHO. Known PHCs include: 109P/Swift-Tuttle, 55P/Tempel–Tuttle, 15P/Finlay, 289P/Blanpain, 255P/Levy, 206P/Barnard–Boattini, 21P/Giacobini–Zinner, and 73P/Schwassmann–Wachmann. Halley's Comet fit the criteria before AD 837, when it passed the Earth at a distance of 0.033AU.[citation needed] It now has an MOID of 0.075AU.

Numbers

In 2012 NASA estimated 20 to 30percent of these objects have been found. During an asteroid's close approaches to another planet it will be subject to gravitational perturbation, modifying its orbit, and potentially changing a previously non-threatening asteroid into a PHA or vice versa. This is a reflection of the dynamic character of the Solar System.

Several astronomical survey projects such as Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research, Catalina Sky Survey and Pan-STARRS continue to search for more PHOs. Each one found is studied by various means, including optical, radar, and infrared to determine its characteristics, such as size, composition, rotation state, and to more accurately determine its orbit. Both professional and amateur astronomers participate in such observation and tracking.

Size

Asteroids larger than approximately 35meters (approximately 115 feet) across can pose a threat to a town or city. However the diameter of most small asteroids is not well determined, as it is usually only estimated based on their brightness and distance, rather than directly measured, e.g. from radar observations. For this reason NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory use the more practical measure of absolute magnitude (H). Any asteroid with an absolute magnitude of 22.0 or brighter is assumed to be of the required size.

Only a coarse estimation of size can be found from the object's magnitude because an assumption must be made for its albedo which is also not usually known for certain. The NASA near-Earth object program uses an assumed albedo of 0.14 for this purpose. In May 2016, the asteroid size estimates arising from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer and NEOWISE missions have been questioned. Although the early original criticism had not undergone peer review, a more recent peer-reviewed study was subsequently published.

Largest PHAs

With a mean diameter of approximately 7kilometers (4.3 miles), Apollo asteroid (53319) 1999 JM8 is likely the largest known potentially hazardous object, despite its fainter absolute magnitude of 15.2, compared to other listed objects in the table below (note: calculated mean diameters in table are inferred from the object's brightness and its (assumed) albedo. They are only an approximation.).

Statistics

Below is a list of the largest PHAs (based on absolute magnitude,H) discovered in a given year. Historical data of the cumulative number of discovered PHA since 1999 are displayed in the bar charts‍—one for the total number and the other for objects larger than one kilometer. PHAs brighter than absolute magnitude 17.75 are likely larger than 1km in size.

Gallery

• Radar image of the 350-meter PHO (308635) 2005 YU55

See also

• Asteroid impact avoidance
• Earth-grazing fireball
• Global catastrophic risk
• List of asteroid close approaches to Earth
• Scout (NASA program)– JPL program to monitor the Minor Planet Center's catalog for Earth impactsPages displaying short descriptions of redirect targets; short term warnings
• Sentry (monitoring system)– JPL program to monitor the Minor Planet Center's catalog for Earth impacts
• Spaceguard– Efforts to study asteroids that might impact Earth

Notes

External links

• (NASA NEO Program)
• , Sormano Astronomical Observatory
• , Sormano Astronomical Observatory
• (PDF)
• , The Guardian, 22 December 2015
• , Minor Planet Center

Minor Planet Center

• onYouTube (min. 7:14)
• onYouTube (min. 5:38)