The 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16 to fill the seat left vacant after the death of Republican incumbent Don Young. Mary Peltola was elected in a 3-way race against former governor Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III in the election, becoming the first Alaska Native and woman to represent Alaska in the House.

The election was the first to use Alaska's new ranked-choice voting (RCV) method, approved by voters in 2020. The winners of the top-four blanket primary advanced to the ranked-choice runoff election, but only three candidates competed (as Al Gross withdrew and endorsed Peltola). Peltola was declared the winner on August 31 after all ballots were counted. Peltola's victory was widely seen as an upset in a traditionally Republican state. She became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Alaska since 2008 and was sworn in on September 13.

Nonpartisan blanket primary

Nick Begich III

Candidates

Advanced to general election

Withdrew after advancing to general election

Eliminated in primary

  • Dennis Aguayo (independent)
  • Jay R. Armstrong (Republican), gold miner
  • Brian Beal (independent)
  • Tim Beck (independent), former Fairbanks North Star Borough Assembly member (1998–2004, 2005–2011), candidate for FNSB mayor (2000) and Alaska Senate (2006)
  • Gregg Brelsford (independent), lawyer and former manager of Bristol Bay Borough (2018–2020)
  • Robert Brown (independent), veteran
  • Chris Bye (Libertarian), fishing guide
  • John Callahan (Republican), public affairs officer for the Alaska Air National Guard
  • Arlene Carl (independent), retiree
  • Santa Claus (independent), North Pole city councillor (2015–2018, since 2019) and mayor pro tem (endorsed Peltola)
  • John Coghill (Republican), former majority leader of the Alaskan State Senate (2013–2017), former state senator (2009–2021), former majority leader of the Alaskan House of Representatives (2002–2006), former state representative (1999–2009), son of former lieutenant governor Jack Coghill, and U.S. Air Force veteran
  • Christopher Constant (Democratic), Anchorage Assembly member since 2017
  • Lady Donna Dutchess (independent), judicial reform activist
  • Otto Florschutz (Republican), former Wrangell Port Commissioner
  • Laurel Foster (independent), paralegal
  • Tom Gibbons (Republican), business manager
  • Karyn Griffin (independent), political organizer and activist
  • Andrew Halcro (independent), former Republican state representative (1998–2003) and Independent candidate for governor of Alaska in 2006
  • Ted Heintz (independent), Corporate Contract Services Professional
  • William Hibler III (independent), former glaciologist with the University of Alaska Fairbanks and Democratic candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2016 and 2020
  • John Howe (Alaskan Independence Party), machinist and Alaskan Independence Party nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020
  • David Hughes (independent), program manager
  • Don Knight (independent)
  • Jeff Lowenfels (independent), attorney and gardening writer
  • Robert "Bob" Lyons (Republican), case manager
  • Anne McCabe (independent), former president of the Kenai Peninsula Educational Support Association
  • Mikel Melander, blue collar worker
  • Sherry Mettler (independent), businesswoman
  • Mike Milligan (Democratic), former Kodiak Island Borough Assembly member, Green Party nominee for U.S. House (1992) and lieutenant governor (1998)
  • J. R. Myers (Libertarian), behavioral health clinician, founder of the Alaska Constitution Party and its nominee for governor in 2014
  • Emil Notti (Democratic), engineer, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, former chair of the Alaska Democratic Party, and nominee for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 1973
  • Robert Ornelas (American Independent Party), perennial candidate
  • Silvio Pellegrini (independent), cyber security manager, IT project manager, and intelligence analyst for the US Air Force Reserve
  • Josh Revak (Republican), state senator for District M (2019–present) and U.S. Army veteran
  • Maxwell Sumner (Republican), homebuilder
  • Tara Sweeney (Republican), former assistant secretary of the Interior for the Bureau of Indian Affairs (2018–2021) (ran as write-in candidate in general election)
  • David Thistle (independent)
  • Ernest Thomas (Democratic)
  • Clayton Trotter (Republican), college professor
  • Bradley Welter (Republican)
  • Jason Williams (independent)
  • Joe Woodward (Republican)
  • Adam Wool (Democratic), state representative (2015–present)
  • Stephen Wright (Republican), candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2016, candidate for Alaska State Senate in 2020, and U.S. Air Force veteran

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

State legislators

Organizations

Individuals

  • Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law

State legislators

U.S. senators

  • Mark Begich, former United States senator (2009–2015)

State legislators

Local officials

State officials

State legislators

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. federal legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Individuals

Individuals

  • Anne Garland Young, Don Young's widow

U.S. executive branch officials

  • Thomas J. Barrett, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Transportation (2007–2009) and former United States Coast Guard admiral[citation needed]

State officials

Organizations

  • ANCSA Regional Association

Debates and forums

2022 Alaska at-large special primary debates and forums
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
P ParticipantA AbsentN Non-inviteeI InviteeW Withdrawn
BegichCoghillConstantGrossLowenfelsPalinRevakPeltolaSweeney
1May 12, 2022Alaska Chamber Alaska Miners Association Alaska Oil and Gas Association Alaska Support Industry Alliance Associated General Contractors of Alaska Resource Development CouncilN/AYouTubePPPPPPPPP

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorNick Begich (R)Santa Claus (I)John Coghill (R)Christopher Constant (D)Al Gross (I)Andrew Halcro (I)Jeff Lowenfels (I)Sarah Palin (R)Mary Peltola (D)Josh Revak (R)Tara Sweeney (R)Adam Wool (D)OtherUndecided
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 6–9, 2022605 (LV)±4.0%16%6%2%5%13%2%3%19%5%4%4%2%4%16%
Remington Research Group (R)April 7–9, 2022955 (LV)±3.1%21%––7%26%––31%–3%2%–4%6%

Results

Primary election results by state house district
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special primary election results
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanSarah Palin43,60127.01
RepublicanNick Begich III30,86119.12
IndependentAl Gross20,39212.63
DemocraticMary Peltola16,26510.08
RepublicanTara Sweeney9,5605.92
IndependentSanta Claus7,6254.72
DemocraticChristopher Constant6,2243.86
IndependentJeff Lowenfels5,9943.71
RepublicanJohn Coghill3,8422.38
RepublicanJosh Revak3,7852.34
IndependentAndrew Halcro3,0131.87
DemocraticAdam Wool2,7301.69
DemocraticEmil Notti1,7771.10
LibertarianChris Bye1,0490.65
DemocraticMike Milligan6080.38
IndependenceJohn Howe3800.24
IndependentLaurel Foster3380.21
RepublicanStephen Wright3320.21
RepublicanJay Armstrong2860.18
LibertarianJ. R. Myers2850.18
IndependentGregg Brelsford2840.18
DemocraticErnest Thomas1990.12
RepublicanBob Lyons1970.12
RepublicanOtto Florschutz1930.12
RepublicanMaxwell Sumner1330.08
RepublicanClayton Trotter1210.07
IndependentAnne McCabe1180.07
RepublicanJohn Callahan1140.07
IndependentArlene Carle1070.07
IndependentTim Beck960.06
IndependentSherry Mettler920.06
RepublicanTom Gibbons940.06
IndependentLady Donna Dutchess870.05
American IndependentRobert Ornelas830.05
IndependentTed Heintz700.04
IndependentSilvio Pellegrini700.04
IndependentKaryn Griffin670.04
IndependentDavid Hughes540.03
IndependentDon Knight460.03
RepublicanJo Woodward440.03
IndependentJason Williams370.02
IndependentRobert Brown360.02
IndependentDennis Aguayo310.02
IndependentWilliam Hibler III250.02
RepublicanBradley Welter240.01
IndependentDavid Thistle230.01
IndependentBrian Beal190.01
RepublicanMikel Melander170.01
Total votes161,428100.0

General election

Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there were less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political ReportLikely RAugust 10, 2022
Inside ElectionsLikely RAugust 4, 2022
Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RJune 22, 2022

Post-primary endorsements

State legislators

Local officials

  • Amy Demboski, Anchorage assembly member

Organizations

U.S. federal legislators

Organizations

U.S. federal legislators

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Tribes

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorRCV countNick Begich (R)Al Gross (I)Sarah Palin (R)Mary Peltola (D)Undecided
Alaska Survey ResearchJuly 20–25, 20221,219 (LV)±2.9%130%–29%41%–
255%–45%
2*–49%51%
Alaska Survey ResearchJuly 2–5, 20221,201 (LV)±2.9%131%–29%40%–
257%–43%
2*–49%51%
June 21, 2022Gross withdraws from the race
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 6–9, 2022605 (LV)±4.0%129%27%26%19%–
233%40%28%–
354%46%–
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorRCV countNick Begich (R)Santa Claus (I)Christopher Constant (D)Al Gross (I)Sarah Palin (R)Tara Sweeney (R)Undecided
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 6–9, 2022605 (LV)±4.0%128%21%–26%25%––
232%–40%28%
353%47%–
3*–53%–47%
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 6–9, 2022605 (LV)±4.0%129%–17%27%28%––
232%–40%28%
354%46%–
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 6–9, 2022605 (LV)±4.0%128%–35%26%11%–
232%39%29%–
355%45%–

Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin vs. Lora Reinbold vs. Josh Revak

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorRCV countAl Gross (I)Sarah Palin (R)Lora Reinbold (R)Josh Revak (R)Undecided
Change Research (D)March 25–29, 2022728 (LV)±3.6%BA33%30%8%9%16%
233%30%–11%26%
335%35%––30%

Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorAl Gross (I)Sarah Palin (R)Undecided
Change Research (D)March 25–29, 2022728 (LV)±3.6%40%42%19%

Al Gross vs. Josh Revak

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredSample sizeMargin of errorAl Gross (I)Josh Revak (R)Undecided
Change Research (D)March 25–29, 2022728 (LV)±3.6%35%34%31%

Results

Transfer of votes from initial tabulation to the final round.
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election
PartyCandidateFirst choiceRound 1Round 2
Votes%TransferVotes%TransferVotes%
DemocraticMary Peltola74,81739.66%+98275,79940.19%+15,46791,26651.48%
RepublicanSarah Palin58,33930.92%+63458,97331.27%+27,05386,02648.52%
RepublicanNick Begich III52,53627.84%+1,27453,81028.53%-53,810Eliminated
Write-in2,9741.58%-2,974Eliminated
Total votes188,666188,582177,292
Blank or inactive ballots3,707+11,29014,997
Democratic gain from Republican
First choice results by state house district
District Nick Begich III Republican Sarah Palin Republican Mary Peltola Democratic Write-in Margin Total votes # % # % # % # % # % District 1 1,448 33.42% 1,409 32.52% 1,432 33.05% 44 1.02% 16 0.37% 4,333 District 2 979 20.03% 1,504 30.78% 2,359 48.27% 45 0.92% 855 17.50% 4,887 District 3 1,522 23.28% 1,235 18.89% 3,723 56.94% 59 0.90% 2,201 33.66% 6,539 District 4 1,003 17.38% 701 12.15% 4,014 69.55% 53 0.92% 3,011 52.17% 5,771 District 5 929 23.05% 1,301 32.27% 1,743 43.24% 58 1.44% 442 10.97% 4,031 District 6 1,923 25.63% 2,468 32.90% 3,039 40.51% 72 0.96% 571 7.61% 7,502 District 7 1,673 30.99% 2,448 45.34% 1,213 22.47% 65 1.20% 775 14.35% 5,399 District 8 1,867 28.54% 3,216 49.17% 1,394 21.31% 64 0.98% 1,349 20.62% 6,541 District 9 2,684 32.55% 1,656 20.08% 3,722 45.13% 185 2.24% 1,038 12.59% 8,247 District 10 1,687 32.11% 1,370 26.08% 2,099 39.96% 97 1.85% 412 7.84% 5,253 District 11 2,054 33.11% 1,506 24.28% 2,537 40.90% 106 1.71% 483 7.79% 6,203 District 12 1,341 28.17% 1,114 23.40% 2,228 46.81% 77 1.62% 887 18.63% 4,760 District 13 1,096 27.41% 1,047 26.18% 1,791 44.79% 65 1.63% 695 17.38% 3,999 District 14 1,000 21.80% 897 19.56% 2,615 57.01% 75 1.64% 1,615 35.21% 4,587 District 15 1,884 32.62% 1,349 23.36% 2,439 42.23% 103 1.78% 555 9.61% 5,775 District 16 1,671 27.09% 1,138 18.45% 3,234 52.43% 125 2.03% 1,563 25.34% 6,168 District 17 905 18.96% 704 14.75% 3,066 64.25% 97 2.03% 2,161 45.28% 4,772 District 18 299 22.91% 360 27.59% 626 47.97% 20 1.53% 266 20.38% 1,305 District 19 536 20.93% 521 20.34% 1,465 57.20% 39 1.52% 929 36.27% 2,561 District 20 885 23.17% 924 24.19% 1,969 51.56% 41 1.07% 1,045 27.36% 3,819 District 21 1,528 28.67% 1,256 23.56% 2,469 46.32% 77 1.44% 941 17.65% 5,330 District 22 755 30.77% 682 27.79% 971 39.57% 46 1.87% 216 8.80% 2,454 District 23 1,909 32.15% 1,884 31.73% 2,044 34.43% 100 1.68% 135 2.27% 5,937 District 24 2,191 37.08% 1,945 32.92% 1,682 28.47% 91 1.54% 246 4.16% 5,909 District 25 2,070 33.93% 2,338 38.32% 1,624 26.62% 69 1.13% 268 4.39% 6,101 District 26 1,566 31.95% 2,398 48.92% 883 18.01% 55 1.12% 832 16.97% 4,902 District 27 1,410 30.78% 2,303 50.27% 809 17.66% 59 1.29% 893 19.49% 4,581 District 28 1,683 32.88% 2,402 46.92% 979 19.12% 55 1.07% 719 14.05% 5,119 District 29 1,834 32.35% 2,390 42.15% 1,395 24.60% 51 0.90% 556 9.81% 5,670 District 30 1,581 26.73% 2,729 46.14% 1,542 26.07% 63 1.07% 1,148 19.41% 5,915 District 31 953 26.64% 1,144 31.98% 1,407 39.33% 73 2.04% 263 7.35% 3,577 District 32 562 26.53% 929 43.86% 581 27.43% 46 2.17% 348 16.43% 2,118 District 33 1,117 27.45% 2,145 52.72% 743 18.26% 64 1.57% 1,028 25.26% 4,069 District 34 1,411 25.52% 1,966 35.56% 2,041 36.91% 111 2.01% 75 1.36% 5,529 District 35 1,182 20.90% 1,453 25.69% 2,911 48.4% 109 1.93% 1,458 25.78% 5,655 District 36 1,485 26.61% 1,979 35.46% 2,030 36.37% 87 1.56% 51 0.91% 5,581 District 37 599 28.62% 563 26.90% 908 43.38% 23 1.10% 309 14.76% 2,093 District 38 289 15.17% 269 14.12% 1,327 69.66% 20 1.05% 1,038 54.49% 1,905 District 39 635 28.01% 391 17.25% 1,185 52.27% 56 2.47% 550 24.26% 2,267 District 40 389 26.46% 303 20.61% 549 37.35% 229 15.58% 160 10.88% 1,470 Overseas voters 1 3.13% 2 6.25% 29 90.63% 0 0.00% 27 84.38% 32 Totals 52,536 27.85% 58,339 30.92% 74,817 39.66% 2,974 1.58% 16,478 8.73% 188,666
DistrictNick Begich III RepublicanSarah Palin RepublicanMary Peltola DemocraticWrite-inMarginTotal votes
#%#%#%#%#%
District 11,44833.42%1,40932.52%1,43233.05%441.02%160.37%4,333
District 297920.03%1,50430.78%2,35948.27%450.92%85517.50%4,887
District 31,52223.28%1,23518.89%3,72356.94%590.90%2,20133.66%6,539
District 41,00317.38%70112.15%4,01469.55%530.92%3,01152.17%5,771
District 592923.05%1,30132.27%1,74343.24%581.44%44210.97%4,031
District 61,92325.63%2,46832.90%3,03940.51%720.96%5717.61%7,502
District 71,67330.99%2,44845.34%1,21322.47%651.20%77514.35%5,399
District 81,86728.54%3,21649.17%1,39421.31%640.98%1,34920.62%6,541
District 92,68432.55%1,65620.08%3,72245.13%1852.24%1,03812.59%8,247
District 101,68732.11%1,37026.08%2,09939.96%971.85%4127.84%5,253
District 112,05433.11%1,50624.28%2,53740.90%1061.71%4837.79%6,203
District 121,34128.17%1,11423.40%2,22846.81%771.62%88718.63%4,760
District 131,09627.41%1,04726.18%1,79144.79%651.63%69517.38%3,999
District 141,00021.80%89719.56%2,61557.01%751.64%1,61535.21%4,587
District 151,88432.62%1,34923.36%2,43942.23%1031.78%5559.61%5,775
District 161,67127.09%1,13818.45%3,23452.43%1252.03%1,56325.34%6,168
District 1790518.96%70414.75%3,06664.25%972.03%2,16145.28%4,772
District 1829922.91%36027.59%62647.97%201.53%26620.38%1,305
District 1953620.93%52120.34%1,46557.20%391.52%92936.27%2,561
District 2088523.17%92424.19%1,96951.56%411.07%1,04527.36%3,819
District 211,52828.67%1,25623.56%2,46946.32%771.44%94117.65%5,330
District 2275530.77%68227.79%97139.57%461.87%2168.80%2,454
District 231,90932.15%1,88431.73%2,04434.43%1001.68%1352.27%5,937
District 242,19137.08%1,94532.92%1,68228.47%911.54%2464.16%5,909
District 252,07033.93%2,33838.32%1,62426.62%691.13%2684.39%6,101
District 261,56631.95%2,39848.92%88318.01%551.12%83216.97%4,902
District 271,41030.78%2,30350.27%80917.66%591.29%89319.49%4,581
District 281,68332.88%2,40246.92%97919.12%551.07%71914.05%5,119
District 291,83432.35%2,39042.15%1,39524.60%510.90%5569.81%5,670
District 301,58126.73%2,72946.14%1,54226.07%631.07%1,14819.41%5,915
District 3195326.64%1,14431.98%1,40739.33%732.04%2637.35%3,577
District 3256226.53%92943.86%58127.43%462.17%34816.43%2,118
District 331,11727.45%2,14552.72%74318.26%641.57%1,02825.26%4,069
District 341,41125.52%1,96635.56%2,04136.91%1112.01%751.36%5,529
District 351,18220.90%1,45325.69%2,91148.4%1091.93%1,45825.78%5,655
District 361,48526.61%1,97935.46%2,03036.37%871.56%510.91%5,581
District 3759928.62%56326.90%90843.38%231.10%30914.76%2,093
District 3828915.17%26914.12%1,32769.66%201.05%1,03854.49%1,905
District 3963528.01%39117.25%1,18552.27%562.47%55024.26%2,267
District 4038926.46%30320.61%54937.35%22915.58%16010.88%1,470
Overseas voters13.13%26.25%2990.63%00.00%2784.38%32
Totals52,53627.85%58,33930.92%74,81739.66%2,9741.58%16,4788.73%188,666
Final round results by state house district
District Mary Peltola Democratic Sarah Palin Republican Margin Total active votes # % # % # % District 1 1,894 49.17% 1,958 50.83% 64 1.66% 3,852 District 2 2,739 59.34% 1,877 40.66% 862 18.67% 4,616 District 3 4,250 68.59% 1,946 31.41% 2,304 37.19% 6,196 District 4 4,408 79.74% 1,120 20.26% 3,288 59.48% 5,528 District 5 2,123 56.05% 1,665 43.95% 458 12.09% 3,788 District 6 3,562 50.10% 3,548 49.90% 14 0.20% 7,110 District 7 1,643 33.34% 3,285 66.66% 1,642 33.32% 4,928 District 8 1,822 30.05% 4,241 69.95% 2,419 39.90% 6,063 District 9 4,536 58.81% 3,177 41.19% 1,359 17.62% 7,713 District 10 2,661 53.83% 2,282 46.17% 379 7.67% 4,943 District 11 3,148 54.23% 2,657 45.77% 491 8.46% 5,805 District 12 2,694 59.43% 1,839 40.57% 855 18.86% 4,533 District 13 2,172 57.07% 1,634 42.93% 538 14.14% 3,806 District 14 3,013 68.93% 1,358 31.07% 1,655 37.86% 4,371 District 15 3,031 55.99% 2,382 44.01% 649 11.99% 5,413 District 16 3,847 65.67% 2,011 34.33% 1,836 31.34% 5,858 District 17 3,475 76.12% 1,090 23.88% 2,385 52.25% 4,565 District 18 727 58.39% 518 41.61% 209 16.79% 1,245 District 19 1,675 68.28% 778 31.72% 897 36.57% 2,453 District 20 2,331 63.64% 1,332 36.36% 999 27.27% 3,663 District 21 2,969 58.68% 2,091 41.32% 878 17.35% 5,060 District 22 1,240 53.54% 1,076 46.46% 164 7.08% 2,316 District 23 2,570 46.28% 2,983 53.72% 413 7.44% 5,553 District 24 2,203 40.27% 3,267 59.73% 1,064 19.45% 5,470 District 25 2,126 37.60% 3,529 62.40% 1,403 24.81% 5,655 District 26 1,175 25.63% 3,409 74.37% 2,234 48.73% 4,584 District 27 1,151 26.88% 3,131 73.12% 1,980 46.24% 4,282 District 28 1,397 29.23% 3,383 70.77% 1,986 41.55% 4,780 District 29 1,855 34.74% 3,484 65.26% 1,629 30.51% 5,339 District 30 1,942 34.88% 3,626 65.12% 1,684 30.24% 5,568 District 31 1,752 52.24% 1,602 47.76% 150 4.47% 3,354 District 32 777 38.66% 1,233 61.34% 456 22.69% 2,010 District 33 1,006 26.18% 2,837 73.82% 1,831 47.65% 3,843 District 34 2,470 47.43% 2,738 52.57% 268 5.15% 5,208 District 35 3,373 62.13% 2,056 37.87% 1,317 24.26% 5,429 District 36 2,462 47.19% 2,755 52.81% 293 5.62% 5,217 District 37 1,157 59.79% 778 40.21% 379 19.59% 1,935 District 38 1,490 80.41% 363 19.59% 1,127 60.82% 1,853 District 39 1,507 74.35% 520 25.65% 987 48.69% 2,027 District 40 863 65.13% 462 34.87% 401 30.26% 1,325 Overseas voters 29 90.63% 3 9.38% 26 81.25% 32 Totals 91,265 48.4% 86,024 45.6% 5,241 2.96% 177,289
DistrictMary Peltola DemocraticSarah Palin RepublicanMarginTotal active votes
#%#%#%
District 11,89449.17%1,95850.83%641.66%3,852
District 22,73959.34%1,87740.66%86218.67%4,616
District 34,25068.59%1,94631.41%2,30437.19%6,196
District 44,40879.74%1,12020.26%3,28859.48%5,528
District 52,12356.05%1,66543.95%45812.09%3,788
District 63,56250.10%3,54849.90%140.20%7,110
District 71,64333.34%3,28566.66%1,64233.32%4,928
District 81,82230.05%4,24169.95%2,41939.90%6,063
District 94,53658.81%3,17741.19%1,35917.62%7,713
District 102,66153.83%2,28246.17%3797.67%4,943
District 113,14854.23%2,65745.77%4918.46%5,805
District 122,69459.43%1,83940.57%85518.86%4,533
District 132,17257.07%1,63442.93%53814.14%3,806
District 143,01368.93%1,35831.07%1,65537.86%4,371
District 153,03155.99%2,38244.01%64911.99%5,413
District 163,84765.67%2,01134.33%1,83631.34%5,858
District 173,47576.12%1,09023.88%2,38552.25%4,565
District 1872758.39%51841.61%20916.79%1,245
District 191,67568.28%77831.72%89736.57%2,453
District 202,33163.64%1,33236.36%99927.27%3,663
District 212,96958.68%2,09141.32%87817.35%5,060
District 221,24053.54%1,07646.46%1647.08%2,316
District 232,57046.28%2,98353.72%4137.44%5,553
District 242,20340.27%3,26759.73%1,06419.45%5,470
District 252,12637.60%3,52962.40%1,40324.81%5,655
District 261,17525.63%3,40974.37%2,23448.73%4,584
District 271,15126.88%3,13173.12%1,98046.24%4,282
District 281,39729.23%3,38370.77%1,98641.55%4,780
District 291,85534.74%3,48465.26%1,62930.51%5,339
District 301,94234.88%3,62665.12%1,68430.24%5,568
District 311,75252.24%1,60247.76%1504.47%3,354
District 3277738.66%1,23361.34%45622.69%2,010
District 331,00626.18%2,83773.82%1,83147.65%3,843
District 342,47047.43%2,73852.57%2685.15%5,208
District 353,37362.13%2,05637.87%1,31724.26%5,429
District 362,46247.19%2,75552.81%2935.62%5,217
District 371,15759.79%77840.21%37919.59%1,935
District 381,49080.41%36319.59%1,12760.82%1,853
District 391,50774.35%52025.65%98748.69%2,027
District 4086365.13%46234.87%40130.26%1,325
Overseas voters2990.63%39.38%2681.25%32
Totals91,26548.4%86,02445.6%5,2412.96%177,289

Aftermath and analysis

The results were praised by pundits and activists, with FairVote, a pro-RCV lobbying group, arguing the low number of spoiled ballots proved Alaskans could use and understand the system. Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang said the election served as a model for electing moderate candidates to office, regardless of partisan affiliation.

However, experts in social choice criticized the election procedure for its pathological behavior called a center squeeze. Begich was eliminated in the first round, despite being preferred by a majority of voters to each one of his opponents, with 53% of voters ranking him above Peltola. However, Palin spoiled the election by splitting the first-round vote, leading to Begich's elimination and contributing to Republicans losing the seat. The final winner, Mary Peltola, was not listed at all on a majority of ballots.

Another factor which contributed to the outcome was the number of ballots that were retired due to exhaustion or overvoting after the elimination of Begich. Approximately 21% of ballots were retired after Begich's elimination compared to 2.8% after the elimination of the write-in candidates. This corresponds to 11,243 voters who did not rank either remaining candidate below Nick Begich. This is substantially higher than the margin of victory which was only 5,140 votes.

The election was also an example of a no-show paradox, where a voter's ballot has the opposite of its intended effect, with high Republican turnout by Palin supporters leading to a Democrat (Peltola) winning. Peltola won the race because of 5,200 ballots ranking her last, behind Palin and Begich. Similarly, the election was an example of negative (or perverse) responsiveness, where a candidate loses as a result of having too much support (i.e. receiving too high of a rank, or less formally, "winning too many votes").

In the wake of the election, a poll found 54% of Alaskans, including a third of Peltola voters, supported a repeal of RCV. Despite this, a 2024 ballot measure to repeal the RCV system ultimately failed. Observers noted such pathologies would have occurred under Alaska's previous primary system as well, leading some to suggest Alaska adopt a rule without similar behavior.

See also

  • Peltola defeats Palin, Begich in Alaska special election for US House of Representatives

Notes

Partisan clients